Heat maps do beg to differ but page design and the users' job to be done has a huge influence on if a fold exists or not. I've seen pages were 50% don't scroll past they "fold" and pages were 75% scroll all the way to the bottom.

I think the thought should be "The fold is real but you can design around it". It's not a simple black/white as it exists or doesn't.

Same here.

"The fold is a myth!!111" is the new "It needs to be above the fold!!11".

Also consider:

The 50% that doesn't scroll might not do so because they decided this is not the site/product/service they were looking for.

... because it's not necessarily a bad thing!